Jerusalem [Israel], August 9: CNN on August 8 quoted sources saying that Hezbollah is likely to act independently and attack Israel without waiting for Iran. Accordingly, Hezbollah could attack Israel in the next few days, while Iran is still discussing how to respond.
Hezbollah strikes first?
US officials believe Iran has not yet made all the preparations needed for a major attack. Meanwhile, Lebanon's proximity to Israel means Hezbollah could act without being detected early. The assessment comes as Iran and Hezbollah are expected to retaliate against Israel after two assassinations that have caused a stir in the region.
Hezbollah military commander Fuad Shukr was killed in an Israeli airstrike in the Lebanese capital Beirut on July 30. A day later, Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh was assassinated in the Iranian capital Tehran. Israel was accused of being behind the attack but did not officially admit or deny it. However, The Washington Post on August 6, citing sources, revealed that Israel had admitted it to the United States, and officials in Washington reacted with surprise and anger.
One source said that Hezbollah and Iran appear to be out of sync on how to respond to the incidents. Similarly, The Times of Israel reported on August 8 that Israeli officials are increasingly convinced that Hezbollah, not Iran, will be the first to launch a major attack on Israel in the coming days.
Meanwhile, Channel 12 reported that Israel has conveyed a message to Hezbollah and Iran that any action that harms civilians will cross a red line and will be met with retaliation. The report said Iran is preparing to respond to attacks on civilian infrastructure or Israeli-related targets abroad, although there is no intelligence on the possibility of such foreign targets being attacked.
Diplomatic efforts
Politico quoted US officials as saying that Iran may be reconsidering a large-scale attack on Israel, after US efforts in coordination with its Middle Eastern allies to pressure Tehran to reconsider. The article said Iran has been warned that a multi-pronged attack on Israel could lead to direct conflict between the two countries.
US officials also noted that Iran needed to calibrate its response to Haniyeh's assassination, as there was a dispute that the Hamas leader was killed by a bomb placed in his room, rather than a direct missile strike, although Iran later concluded that the Hamas leader was killed by "a short-range projectile with a warhead of approximately 7 kg" from outside his residence. US officials said Iran would respond, but it would likely be limited and not immediate.
In a similar development, Iran International reported that Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian asked Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei to avoid a direct attack on Israel . According to him, Pezeshkian warned that an escalation could lead Israel to attack Iran's infrastructure and energy targets and cripple the Iranian economy. In addition, sources said the Iranian president was concerned that a war could increase public discontent with the government. The report said that Khamenei made no commitments at the meeting.
Source: Thanh Nien Newspaper